Five Tornadoes Hit Maryland In February

Five tornadoes (confirmed) hit Maryland in a line of storms totally uncharacteristic of February weather.

While this month has been known for heavy snowstorms near Valentine’s Day, the weather is mild and often wet. Where I live we’ve only just seen an inch of snow, and with temperatures during the day ranging wildly from the upper 30s to over 60, I don’t expect any snow. The projected temperatures for the next ten days are going to be much the same.

In January I saw a magnolia grow flower buds. They didn’t bloom, but it takes several days of really mild weather to do that. I’ve seen it before, premature budding, but never that soon. In fact, one day the grounds crews brined the parking lot for no reason. Nothing happened, yet the complex was billed.

Meanwhile, this article adds more proof of oceanic temperature rise owing to greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. See more proof here, but look, another chunk of glacier just broke off, and as the articles linked here point out, there’s more to come. I’ve said, and I hold to it, the tipping point has already been reached. Temperatures only rise from here. More freaky and out of season weather is coming. By ordering the repeal of environmental regulations, Trump has put the time ahead by years, time when we will see massive cataclysms and many will die. The tornadoes in Maryland may have been EF-One, but soon, in an area that rarely saw such weather, there will be more and they will be much stronger. There’s no way to stop it. It really, in the end, isn’t freak weather at all. It’s just the new normal.

Life is changing. Even as I predicted it, vintners were already planting and moving vines to the north of France. It’s happening as I knew it would. The best chance we have is to kick out the jackass in the White House. It’s our only hope.

Say Goodbye To New York, Miami, The Outer Banks, The Assateague Peninsula And Your Favorite East Coast Beach. Just Wait For The Maps To Be Redrawn.

In an extraordinary paper written by scholars and fellows at the University of Sheffield, I’ve been given something that makes complete sense and doesn’t surprise me at all.

Because of how gravity works, two things are happening in Antarctica that are caused by global air temperature’s inexorable rise.

The first is that snowmelt happens. Of course it does. But increases in the blue pools picked up by satellite photos have been mentioned for years. That has been stuck in my mind, and I’ve repeated it many times. I knew there was a nagging uneasiness attached to the images I kept in my mind. Just not what was causing that unease to stay for so long.

I reasoned simply that the surface melt of glacial ice must be refrozen or evaporated, which is not exactly true. Not all the time, and when it is not, there lies with it a mechanic I should have considered, but didn’t. Hence the nagging thoughts about beautiful cerulean pools atop shimmering ice mountains and plateaux.

What I was missing was the probable flow of melt water as the pools grew in size and number to cracks, crevasses and other features of glacial ice most never think about. Huge ravines, valleys. Because glaciers move. And they always insist on following the rules of gravity. I’ll never forget watching some documentary about glaciers. I can’t remember the name or when it was, but the images were wondrous. A cave cut out by ice and men, and running alongside a glacier, allowed its seasonal movement to be measured to the nearest centimeter or less. It was huge, dirty in the underground, and time lapse filming when played back made it look like part of some giant underground monster.

Here is the problem. If glacial ice moves, and we know it does, why do we so often think of Antarctica as having stationary glaciers? It’s certainly not so.

When melt water is forced by gravity into these rifts and gaps in ice, it goes down as far as the ice allows. And there must have been a time, and times, when that water didn’t make it very far before refreezing.

Increasingly, the authors found, this was isn’t what is happening. The water is making it in large quantities to the base of the ice. Where the movement takes place. In the documentary I saw decades ago, the thawing mud acted as a lubricant beneath ice. Here, water is the lubricant and it’s causing bursts of movement toward the ocean where of course more melting takes place. The pace is twice what it would have been a century ago.

It will accelerate even more. The bursts of movement taking place several times annually will last longer. The authors and scientists want to include this in seawater rise projections. And, of course, they’ll make sure they are heard.

MEANWHILE

Sources agree that Donald Trump has issued orders for the Environmental Protection Agency to shred, delete and destroy every byte, paper file, software and more that bears proof, or indeed any reference to, global warming.

He is tightening his grip on fate.

Here is the article with a download for the PDF file of the report. Do it. Ignorance of even the most basic facts is now an immediate threat and our mortal enemy.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12039-2

Franzen’s Computer: The Scientific Community’s Hypocrisy On Display

Okay, so you’ve read it or read about the New Yorker article written by novelist Johnathan Franzen. Articles like this one are all over the internet. I’d wager porn sites don’t get as many clicks.

If you haven’t been caught up, just hit the link above.

Now then, how to straighten out this mess?

Because I’d like to know what the hell the science community is doing. I’ve been following climate change news for years, careful of which sources I will and will not read. Sometimes that isn’t infallible, as sources are always susceptible in science articles to the rantings of cranks. However, except for right-wing media, which I’m repulsed by, all of the articles I’ve seen since the subject became of prime interest to me all have two things in common. All of them.

First, they don’t remain the same. Each has grown progressively more dire and depressing, and I have said so many times. No one was mentioning that the Thwaits ice shelf was in this much danger before the breaking up of Larsen C in western Antarctica. It took time for the press (or scientists) to start that conversation. It’s always worse than the last article I read, sometimes from the same sources and often not more than months apart.

Second, almost every source I’ve used or read, whether I linked to it or not, have stated that once the 1.5 °C threshold is exceeded, bad things definitely begin to happen. Often they are described as “hellish”, and I have been given no reason to disagree with the use of that word.

The Popular Science article in the link is confusing to me. It seems to state on one hand that this will not be the case while at the same time, denying that efforts to avoid it would be fruitless which is Franzen’s contention.

Perhaps if he were not so crass, had not mentioned running climate models of his own, in his brain, he would not have been so savagely set upon (plenty of articles are far more harsh than the PS one, which is why I’ve chosen it).

I have no bone to pick with the novelist. He misspoke or he was purposely being self aggrandizing. Everyone’s allowed to go there. We include that in something we call the “freedom of speech”.

But I’m amazed at the content, and not just the nature of, the attacks on the man.

Because someone decided that he’s so unlikeable that they attack with what amounts to contradictory stories while accusing him of also being contradictory. Have we sunk so low that anyone warrants an unsavory attack even if they’re on our side, just because we don’t like what they say or how they say it? Dialogue is a key to solving problems, and this has become a missed opportunity to use such a precious resource.

Volcanologists and others are in this fight. It’s beyond ridiculous.

What has been established is that past the degree target of the Paris Agreement, we are in an unfamiliar realm, unknown, unknowable. We do agree though that it isn’t going to be trivial. People will suffer more heat injuries. Many will die.

Food shortages will eventually be so acute that starvation and complications from malnutrition will kill many others, while leaving more people open to disease and a list of other horrors.

The news that Russia and China are going to share military tech is as terrifying as anything I’ve ever read. With an “alliance” like that, in a global situation of food and water shortages, war becomes ever more likely to happen. While a dunce like Donald Trump weakens us already, and Boris Johnson tries to one-up him on the stupidity scale, the table is already set.

It isn’t just climate change. So many things go along with it that discussion of the rising temperature alone is folly. It’s time.

Time for scientists to decide what we’re supposed to believe. What measures will help, if any. Because one thing Franzen wrote that rings all too true is that human nature isn’t going to change. We will go past the mark of the Paris Agreement. Who wants to give up their Porsche or Mercedes-Benz or their riding lawnmower? Who wants to hail a cab, ride a bus, or use an unpowered rotary grass cutter?

None of that shit is going to change.

Does it mean that end times await?

I believe it does. But for scientists, this is a non- subject unless they’re mocking it. They refer to “the Apocalypse”, and they should know better. The word translates to “revealed,” or “revelation”. The word I think they’re going for is “tribulation”, a period of great suffering described in The Book of Revelation (to St. John).

I rather expected better from men with letters behind their names. This kind of thing will surely seal our fates.

Is there hope?

I don’t know, really. Why don’t you ask yur higher power what’s right, and be open to His answer? The sands in the glass run low.

‘Reaching end game’: New paper on climate change raises alarm

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/game-paper-climate-change-raises-alarm-190608101953511.html

It’s bad. Very bad. I’m sharing this article because there is a link to the report, and you need to read it. You need to read it now. Grab a cup of coffee and take a break. In PDF, it is a mere 11 pages, but it packs a knockout punch in a solitary swing. Two scientists from Australia working with serious creds have drawn a scenario of hell on Earth.

Just take a look at Antarctic ice lost since the 1990s and the increased rate of glacial melt since:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12069988

None of this can be expressed accurately in linear mathematic equations. All future predictions as expressed in the hell on Earth scenario of the report linked to in the Aljazeera article are noted by the authors as being impossible to express in linear math. This may mean worse news about climate change is just around the corner. Chaos theory is in full play here. You can observe changes in glacial ice. You can calculate what’s been lost and the temperature rise that caused it; ocean as well as air temperature. You can not predict where this change goes next without being conservative, which seems to be what’s been done so far. These two brave souls buck that tendency and predict a rise of at least 1 °C by 2030, very close to the cap set by the Paris Agreement. Others say the temperature will increase but there’s no way of knowing how far and how fast. Too often this has led climatologists to issue reports which failed to raise enough alarm for really serious changes in our behavior. Not only that, but a big factor in the reporting is that governments often censor key words in reports, and recently Donald Trump did exactly that. The report was in general not changed, but the tone was softened with the removal of words that described “imminent” and “calamitous” threats.

Along with conservative politicians, we have to contend with conservative religious leaders who are positively demented. Last evening I read an article by a pastor who was so unglued that it shocked me, and that’s hard to do. The lies were extraordinarily stupid. He accused the left of advocating genocide to reduce world population. He actually said “thank God for Donald Trump” and his refusal to honor the Paris Climate Agreement. He also said that to stay competitive we need our mighty diesel powered machines and our clean coal. Oh my God!

What the right-wing religious author failed to mention is that it is not the left but the right which has pursued genocide. No democrats have been okay with removing all “entitlement” programs. It’s the opposite with the right. Because with healthcare and social security revoked, millions will, absolutely, die.

And it’s no laughing matter; such crank religious leaders are followed by millions. They reject science despite evidence. They oppose and distort the words of all those they find to be in disagreement with their right-wing dogma.

This is a big reason why I believe that the hell on Earth scenario set forth in the report will arrive before the year 2040. It’s why I believe that we have much less than a decade to take extreme, drastic action.

At the Potsdam Institute, Professor Emeritus Hans Joachim Schellnhuber has said that if action is not immediately taken, we are close to the point where we will have to live with the consequences, thus entering an endgame.

The Paris Agreement is unacceptable. By its guidelines, we will go well beyond the 1.5 °C goal and quickly arrive at 4 to 5 °C by 2040. I say it will much sooner.

Next to China, the United States puts out the most carbon emissions to the atmosphere. That is inexcusable. Again, Schellnhuber says that if we continue down the path we are on, “we will end our civilisation.”

But what does that mean?

Because the authors assert that climate computer models are projecting temperatures lower than are likely with unknown variables, or unquantifiable factors, outside of the system which no one can program into the models.

As I’ve said for years, even with the most drastic changes to our use of the resources which cause green house conditions, the average global temperature will continue to rise. This could give us a 2 °C rise within a few years if not less. At that point there wouldn’t be anything else we could do. It would just continue. The rise becomes self-sustaining and no attempt at interdiction will stop it.

What happens is, crops fail. Grazing animals die and droughts in Africa and the American Southwest give way to desertification. The deserts of the world get bigger and take fertile land by the square mile, not the acre. Imagine the Sahara getting even bigger, particularly in the Kalahari portion. It’s staggering to even try to picture.

Then, crops in the Midwest fail. Increased severe storms with flooding rains, hail and tornadoes become almost constant and tornadic activity is extended to almost year-round. On the Mid-Atlantic coast, storms make it over the Appalachian range intact will their full force. Hurricanes could make it occasionally into the supercane category, meaning landfall is utter devastation. They will also land further north than usual, so from New York to North Carolina is the death zone while nowhere north or south is really safe.

Fungal outbreaks including super fungi are rising health risks as well as deadly diseases from mosquitoes. Regions once hostile to mosquitoes vanish.

Pandemics will become more common and more deadly.

In the summer, degree days with killing temperatures will stretch into heatwaves that literally cook people’s brains by heatstroke. Temperatures above 105 °F can be sustained for weeks with higher spikes probable. How high is anyone’s guess but in the space of a decade daytime highs in the South and up to the middle states could easily reach 115 °F or more. We’re talking death by the numbers here; all things mentioned above will combine to teach America what true suffering is.

One problem in our path is that scientists are reluctant to think, or at least write, in worst case scenario terms. Worst case being “existential threats to civilisation”. Their reports and comments are conservative to a damnable degree. We know what the Trump administration is doing with reports: ordering wording changes or censoring them completely. That is not a million miles from condemning this country. Reports are conservative wherever the political leadership wants them to be. Scientists therefore hold back. Truth be told, the civil wars in Syria and Libya were caused by climate change. People could not get potable water or food and they revolted. That’s what can happen in the United States. Once the food shortages and lack of drinking water get severe, factions will form along political, economic and racial lines. At this point society breaks down and chaos transforms from a mathematic concept to a status. Anarchy reigns.

But the government will not go silently; no political ideology will matter. Martial law is established, but few prisoners taken.

Population control and genocide are taken from conspiracy theorists and are realized. In every top civilized country, society breaks down. Countries are willing to take resources from other countries by open warfare. At first this is done by invasion forces but at some point desperation and failure to reason will make a limited nuclear exchange highly probable. I say limited because the resources sought are unusable if radioactive; but by then we’re all doomed anyway. All that remains is the countdown to Zero Hour.

This, of course, is an oversimplified assessment. Many things happen between now and then. All lead to the end game. For instance, Donald Trump has been a puppet and a rogue at the same time. The reason his demented actions and words have been defended by the Republican party is, because to them, he’s useful. The party lies to and hamstrings the people while demonizing everyone else. ALEC, the Koch brothers…it’s greed for money and power. So many are intoxicated to the point where they believe their own lies and that is pure madness. The Council on Foreign Relations doesn’t serve any master but the rich; as Trump erodes our relationship with other countries he is putting everyone in danger, and what few people see is that everyone includes the rich.

There’s a lot of suffering that will happen. Betrayals within parties. People seeing the truth too late. Like when they can’t even afford to feed their children when they’re unfamiliar with the pangs of hunger. And watching them die. The rich will use the police and the military to protect themselves. Politicians will pass laws that deem themselves indispensable. They’ll have the access to protection, shelter, food and water, healthcare. In the end they will suffer a karmic reckoning. But who would care? They’ve led us to this threshold and we have followed. The threshold is under our feet. We can do the necessary things, things that will be inconvenient, and suffer later but survive.

Or we can argue and end civilization in twenty years’ time at the most.

What’s going to happen?

That’s too easy to answer. I don’t even need nonlinear maths. I don’t need anything except what I’ve already learned: that while good and decent people are all around us, the human race in whole is best described as weak, greedy, and easily swayed in large numbers to stupidity and homicide…and suicide.